Scoble is wrong about analog.

I’m going to go out on a limb and just flat out dissagree with Robert Scoble.

In his latest post he cites an EngadgetHD article noting that there are only two years remaining until the government mandated shut down of analog television. Thus completing the switch to the more efficient, higher quality and most of all, media company friendly, digital signals. Scoble uses his own father for the example as to why this shutdown won’t happen.

While he raises a good point his arguement is flawed. His point is old people vote, and they vote in large numbers. He argues that when they find out we’re going to take their analog TV from them, they will come out in droves and change the laws. I’ll go on the record and agree if there is anything that would, and could stop this upgrade it’s cranky old people voting it down.But I’m also going on the record to say it won’t happen. The transition will happen without a hitch.

I think by the time the analog switch is flipped off no one will really notice. Especially the elderly who are less in-tune to technology. The main reason for this is something I’m not sure Scoble really caught: the switch doesn’t require the average consumer to upgrade their set, only their signal. It just means that pretty much every household who wants a cable connection will have to switch from an analog reciever to a digital reciever. They don’t need to buy an HDTV or anything of the like. My parents 15 year old TV works fine with the digital box and probably so will Scoble’s dad’s.The thing is most people don’t understand the difference between analog and digital, nor do they care, they just know the cable company is offering them a better deal and more channels if they switch the box on top of their TV. Most people won’t even be aware it’s happening, or that they have digital service.

In my area, here on Long Island, the transition is pretty much completed already. Cablevision, the dominent provider in the area has made it cheaper to switch to their iO digital cable service than to keep your existing analog one. Combine that with the cheap bundles of broadband with your digital signal and it’s pretty much insane not to. And now more companies are getting into the game. Verizon for example has started to penetrate the once monopolistic grip of Cablevision with their FiOS service and they don’t offer analog service at all.I think Scoble raises a good point, if highly publicized I think people would come out against the transition. But I believe it would be almost entirely based on misunderstanding. Even if people did band together against it, if consumer rights groups got up in arms, I’d argue you wouldn’t hear about it too much. Not to sound cynical or conspiracy theorist but the media companies aren’t exactly going to publicize it when they stand to benefit from the transition and the people who would be up in arms aren’t exactly reading blogs on a daily basis either.

Watch, the transition’s going to happen with a whimper. The media companies have been working on this for a while and by the time the clock expires to be done people won’t even know it happened, with a very small handful of exceptions who are too out of touch to have their voices heard.

Mark my words.